As a KiwiSaver manager, Sam Stubbs' inbox is bombarded with analysts and share brokers picking where financial markets will be in the future. He opens none of them. He has learned that the authors say what they say to get you to buy or sell. They make money from your activity, and they like to encourage that.

Economists are no better, he says, and make fortune-tellers look good. Remember all the economic doom and gloom they were forecasting this time last year? And now we have “experts” picking that global share markets are too high, and have to fall.

However, as Sam explains in this article, examples of pundits getting it wrong are everywhere. The reality is, no one can reliably pick where markets will be in a month, a year or a decade. And betting your financial well-being on getting it right has a lower chance of succeeding than gambling.

Sam points to Warren Buffet, arguably the world's most successful investor, who recommends a very simple strategy – have diversified investments, pay the lowest fees, keep investing, and just get on with the rest of your life.

Read the full article on Stuff.